News Flash- A politician’s  behavior is as predictable as the sun rising each morning.  Nevertheless, it is dumbfounding that most folks are surprised to discover a politician has duped them.

Recall the tale of the frog and the scorpion…the two critters find themselves pushed to the shoreline of a dangerous river.   They each have to navigate this river crossing to survive some sort of fast-approaching natural disaster.  Individually neither will survive the crossing so the odd-couple must form- a pact must occur.  The frog intensely distrusts the scorpion and says- “I’m afraid of what’s going to happen, I’m going to let you climb on my back to navigate, but you’re going to bite me- for Pete’s sake, you’re a scorpion”.  The scorpion assures his new pal that in the interest of self-preservation he would never do that.  To make his point, he also points out that Mr. Frog could dive below the water at any time and drown him.  Mr. Frog suspends disbelief and his instincts.  They embark…Mr. Frog puts his head down and paddles like crazy while Mr. Scorpion steers the duo through the roiling current.  All is going well, the once far-off bank is approaching when suddenly Mr. Scorpion plunges his tail into Mr. Frog’s back, delivering the lethal poison.  Mr. Frog howls “you idiot, you’ve killed us both, why, WHY”?  As Mr. Frog fades to unconsciousness and slips below the water, the last thing he hears is Mr. Scorpion uttering “hey, I’m a scorpion, it’s what I do”.

I wish the good folks in the world of Las Vegas Sports Books would open up betting lines on major political issues of the day.  Immigration reform tops my list as the first new major political betting line.  You could vote by political party and issue.  It could work like this…I’ll take the Democrats- full amnesty for $10 at 3:1.  Or, for the more adventurous prognosticator, I’ll take POTUS, with an Executive Order for $15 at 12:1  Until recently, betting the GOP on any issue related to immigration reform was the classic long-shot, but times they are a-changing.  Unless of course it was – I’ll take the GOP, with shoot them as they come over the fence for $10 at 2:3  Lot’s of action on that one!

Back to Mr. Scorpion…in the end, he’s the political everyman.  The politicians do what they do because that is their nature.  The politician cannot help him or herself…issues are practically speaking- unimportant and completely fungible.  Issues are simply spring-boards to the promotion of self-interest.  If a politician or party believes and issue too incendiary to self-interest, then regardless of public opinion and need…no action; just lip service.  At the point that an issue can no longer be avoided, or the issue can be successfully co-opted for personal or party gain…voila!  THIS INJUSTICE MUST BE ADDRESSED AND THE WORLD AS WE KNOW IT WILL END IF WE DON’T DO SOMETHING IMMEDIATELY.

The two parties know that by virtue of the un-interrupted tap-dancing around the three-decade plague of illegal immigration, they are in a pickle.  But with enough sugar, even pickle juice can be tasty.

Each party will now attempt to mix this tasty concoction.  Democrats have the early lead in the process of co-opting an issue of mutual invention to gain market share.  They hope to enact sweeping legislation that creates a permanent voting block favoring their party.  The GOP senses a mounting sea-change of political unrest.  They are giddy watching the shift toward the right by a hope & change weary voting public.  They would like to run out the clock on the current POTUS…all the while feigning urgent interest in the issue of immigration reform.  They have two goals.  First, don’t get caught on the wrong side of an issue once it is clear that there is no way to kill it, and second, and perhaps more importantly, if the issue is going to be addressed with new laws, be sure it’s solved while you’re running things so you can gain rights to the perpetual campaign theme of “We Did That”.  Witness the big-stall being propagated in the public immigration reform narrative.  The primary move on any big-stall is to announce you’re softening your stance, followed immediately by proposing endless alternatives and options that look good on paper, but won’t really lead to a compromise because the pickle juice is purposely just a tad tart.

Immigration reform is a two-headed coin being flipped, both sides of the coin are brown.  Imagine the delight of the GOP as they pass immigration reform legislation. They are likely to do it; do it with a majority; AND they get to do it with bi-partisan support.  The tri-fecta of politics.  The ultimate three-for one!  Flowers will bloom, angels will sing; a new era of political cooperation will ensue.  In the back room, the party elders will wipe their brows and mumble…”that was a close one, get the propaganda printers busy making some clever background banners for our victory lap speeches”.

Note to readers- “We Did That” bragging rights are not perpetual…for example, unless really provoked, try to remember the last time the GOP trotted out the “Abraham Lincoln freed the slaves” theme.  A lost cause; a luster-less ode to bygone times…face it folks, once African-Americans were cleverly invented by the Democrats and enshrined as permanent victims, truth was trumped forever.

I’m opening up the betting.  The early money says the clock will run out until January 2017.