You have to be of a certain age to remember a Robert Redford movie about a bunch of affable con-men assembled to perpetrate what they referred to as “The Long-Con”.  The movie was called The Sting.

The premise of a Long-Con rests on elaborate deception, and appealing to a person’s greed and self-interest.  Done properly, in the face of skepticism, one will suspend disbelief and fall willingly into a trap.  A key element of the con is that it is designed to unfold over a period of time.  It seems that our minds are wired to more readily accept the unbelievable and embrace the impossible as reality if our dis-belief dissolves over time.

Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu appears to be in the minority of world leaders who understand that Iran has been playing a Long-Con on its enemies.  Leading up to, and following this week’s announcement of a new framework deal with Iran that begins a process I like to call Treats for Tricks, Netanyahu plays the role of the only guy at a magic show who sees how the trick is done.

The Supreme Leader of Iran Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and his regime-team are informed by historical & religious perspectives, and propelled by fierce political appetite.  They know that the passage of time is irrelevant – stalling is not the same as stopping- just like retreat is not surrender.  In fact, purposeful deceit and lying to non-believers is sanctioned & enshrined in their religious beliefs.  He is perfectly happy to wait decades to realize his goal of regional hegemony.  Khamenai gets it…when your back is against the wall, stop punching and take a breather to gather strength and resources.  Their supposed new-found desire to re-enter the world of peaceful nation states is little more than a naked stall for time; just like the recent “election” of a purported born-again tweet-happy moderate as figure-head President, and the instant moderation of their endless harsh rhetoric toward Israel- laughably transparent ploys sold perfectly; each a foundation stone for the Long-Con.

If the con turns out the way Khamenei designed, years will go by while Iran feigns good-behavior- sanctions will ease & state resources will rapidly re-accumulate.  The international community will sigh in relief – giddily celebrating the effectiveness of diplomacy.  When Khamenei gets to a point of comfort, he will re-ramp his regime’s true nuclear ambitions.

 I don’t believe in coincidence.  The harsh sanctions that he brought upon the people of Iran are forcing his hand.  Khamenei is acutely aware that on his current vector and speed, his regime could be toppled in a variation of a semi-peaceful popular protest- a people’s uprising…recall that he was around for this same drama in 1979 when the Shah was deposed.  Or worse, in order to survive, he would have to invoke a crushing military blight on his people to put down a revolution, akin to his neighbor-puppet Assad in Syria.   Either way, chaos is not good for business.  The Iranian people have reached a tipping point- wide-spread unhappiness due to the teeming poverty brought on by years of economic isolation, rampant inflation, and unemployment leave Khamenai no choice but to rope-a-dope.

 Here is where Khamenai’s understanding of the long-con is really brilliant.  When running the con, you don’t let the mark know he’s doomed until he has no way of reversing out.  Khamenai knows with certainty that Iran sits on one of the world’s true last massive undeveloped hydrocarbon bonanzas.  There will come a time in the next 25-30 years when the world’s insatiable appetite for this dwindling resource will overcome wider self-interest.   In distant years when Iran reverses out of agreements and returns to wholesale processing of uranium for nuclear materials, sanctions will be certainly be threatened.  However, in a future where the thirst for oil is dizzying, no international agreement to impose new sanctions will occur, and it is happily down the Yellow-Cake Road to Oz for Iran.

 Iran will do all of this on their terms, in a time of their choosing when they know they are strong enough to ride out the inevitable international condemnation.  Give Khamenai credit for an absolutely brilliant gambit.  We are fools being played by folks who recognize that the egos and the political ambitions of our bureaucrats and politicians can be easily manipulated.

Proponents of this new strategy of Tricks for Treats now ask- so what should we do instead?  Often the best strategy is to do NOTHING…but it is hard to do; don’t answer the ringing phone.  Sanctions got us here…Iran rushing head long toward collapse.  The best part was that it was relatively inexpensive in blood and treasure.  Instead of patiently driving him toward unconditional surrender, we blinked and let Khamenai re-gain advantage.  We allowed him to negotiate the terms of his delay.  He purposely appeals to bureaucrats and politician’s vanities; their selfish desire to look useful and gain the applause and admiration of the masses.

In a homage to Neville Chamberlain, we’re betting on good will and a belief that Khamenai will put aside his dream of Iranian regional hegemony over time…good luck on that.  It’s too bad that when my prediction comes true- those who are reading this now and thinking that I’m the fool will not be the only ones who suffer from the result of this collective naiveté